Brooklyn by the Quarter
In Q4 of 2024, we said goodbye to one of the most erratic years in modern memory— and actually saw signs of hope for the future.
Casey Soloff is a Licensed Real Estate Salesperson with Compass, a 20 year resident of Brooklyn, and founder of the monthly Dadurdays meetup at Wild East Brewing Co. in Gowanus.
When thinking back on 2024, quite a few words come to mind—some of them more appropriate to spell out than others. But the most apt of all would have to be “uncertain.” And more than anything, more than high mortgage rates or low inventory, the real estate market abhors uncertainty.
But as we rounded the home stretch, with three decisive rate cuts behind us and a president-elect, that uncertainty began to fade into the past, and a glimmer of hope peered around the corner.
Potential Presidents and Roller Coaster Rates
The exact effect that a presidential election year has on the real estate market cannot be explained, except to say that it’s a wild card—and this one was wilder than most.
I was told by more than a few people that they would leave this country if Donald Trump was elected to a second term, but we have yet to see that flood of inventory hit the market. The prevailing opinion was that a Trump victory would lead to lower mortgage rates. So far, we’re seeing the opposite.

Once the Federal Reserve Board initially dropped their funds rate, the expectation was that mortgage rates would follow suit. However, despite a quick dip immediately following their September meeting, at which they announced the first of three decreases, by the end of the year, mortgage rates had climbed right back to where they were in the summer.
Could the worst be behind us? Definitely maybe.
So why, after all the madness of the last 12 months, do I see a case for optimism heading into 2025?
Because when we look at the numbers from the fourth quarter of last year, we actually are seeing measurable signs of a better year ahead.

In Q4, monthly contract activity in Brooklyn was playing footsy with the rolling seasonal average, and, in October, even exceeded the number of contracts signed—the first time it has done so since July of 2023.

When looking at Brooklyn climate index—which examines the ratio of signed deals to listings removed from the market—the last quarter of 2024 decisively outperformed both Q4 2022 and 2023.

And finally, let’s look at what Urban Digs calls “listing success”—that is, listings that went into contract within 30 days of hitting the market. Even though we don’t have December data yet, we see that October and November of last year was considerably more successful than those months in 2022 and 2023.
So, while it sure would be nice to see greater consistency, these statistics could absolutely be interpreted as signs of a recovering market. Sadly, until someone way smarter than me develops a crystal ball that can see into the future, no one can say with certainty how the next 12 months will shake out—as the Dread Pirate Roberts said, anyone who says differently is selling something.
If 2024 was “uncertainty,” 2025 is “hope.”
We all just experienced one hell of a year—not just those of us that are real estate professionals, and not just those of us looking to buy or sell a home. And while next 12 months are far from predictable, we can be grateful that two critical factors of uncertainty are behind us, for better or worse, and that the numbers appear to signal that we are headed for an easier market.
If you have questions—about this, or about buying or selling in New York City—I am always available for a conversation. Please don’t hesitate to reach out by phone or email, or to follow me on Instagram for timely information on the market. It would be a privilege to help you realize your real estate goals.
Enjoy the new year, and keep an eye out for my Q1 update in April.